The Futures Game Got Triple-A Mostly Right, With a Few Glaring Exceptions

Eight Triple-A players made this year's Futures Game, and the names go deeper than the marquee guys. Ryan Clifford is punishing baseballs in Syracuse, a 92.7 mph average exit velocity and a 52.1 percent hard-hit rate. Charlie Condon sits third in the Pacific Coast League in homers, slugging, and OPS. Kaelen Culpepper is hitting .272 with 14 homers and 15 steals for St. Paul, one step from Minnesota. Lombard Jr., Rada, and Milbrandt round out the group, each climbing a depth chart in real time. Carlos Lagrange gets there too, the same arm that struck out Aaron Judge in live batting practice this spring. And Ralphy Velazquez, Cleveland's top prospect, punched his ticket at Columbus with a .273 average and nine homers between two levels. Eight names, eight real Triple-A résumés. Which makes the next question harder to ignore. Who didn't make the cut.

The snubs are real, but let's be fair about a few of them. Joshua Baez has 25 homers, a .282 average, and a .976 OPS for Memphis, and the Cardinals still went with Rainiel Rodriguez and Liam Doyle, both stuck in Double-A. That one's hard to defend. Angel Genao is hitting .283 with six homers in 48 games at Columbus, right next to Ralphy Velazquez, and only one of them got picked. Also a fair gripe. James Tibbs III leads the Pacific Coast League with 21 homers and a .991 OPS for Oklahoma City, but the Dodgers went with Josue De Paula and Mike Sirota instead, and both of those guys are having monster years of their own. Hard to be mad there. Luis Lara is hitting .326 with an .895 OPS and 22 steals for Nashville, and Milwaukee picked Jesús Made and Luis Peña. Made is the best prospect alive. No complaints allowed. Four names left home, but only two of them actually sting. The Futures Game got this one mostly right.

The Rising Star

Nelson Rada, OF, Salt Lake Bees (Angels)

Rada is hitting .284/.389/.358 with 26 steals in 71 games this year, and the profile is exactly what you'd expect from a 20-year-old who's still one of the youngest regulars at Triple-A. He's walking more than he's striking out isn't quite true, 44 walks against 49 strikeouts, but that gap is close enough to matter for a hitter his age at this level. June was his best month, a .361 average and an .859 OPS in 106 plate appearances. The power isn't there yet, just 2 homers on the season, but that's not really his game. Plus speed, plus defense in center, and an approach that's more advanced than his age suggests. He already made the Futures Game as the Angels' No. 2 prospect. The bat needs to grow. Everything else already looks ready.

Under the Radar

BJ Murray, 3B/1B, Iowa Cubs (Cubs)

Nobody outside of Des Moines is talking about Murray, and that's a mistake. He's hitting .325/.425/.542 with a .967 OPS through 73 games, 10 homers, 44 RBI, and 42 walks against just 68 strikeouts. A 15th-round pick out of Florida Atlantic, switch-hitting, 26 years old, the kind of guy who never had a Top 100 tag attached to his name. June alone was a .329 average with an .853 OPS and 3 homers. He's playing legitimate defense at third with a good enough arm and enough flexibility to cover first. The Cubs have a crowded infield picture, which is the only real thing standing between him and Chicago. Production like this doesn't stay buried forever. He's not the story anyone expected out of Iowa. He might be the one that matters most.

Worth Watching

Hagen Smith, LHP, Charlotte Knights (White Sox)

Smith is back from the shoulder impingement that put him on the 7-day IL in mid-June, and the numbers he's built so far tell a mixed story. A 4.67 ERA and an 0-5 record through 14 Triple-A starts, with 36 walks in 52 innings, over six per nine. That's the real issue right now, not the stuff. The strikeouts are legitimate, 77 on the season, a 13.3 K/9 that's a career high for him, and he's had multiple nine-strikeout outings mixed into that workload. The shoulder scare adds a layer of risk to a guy still refining his command as a starter. White Sox No. 4 prospect, thin rotation depth behind him, so the door is there if he throws strikes. Watch how he commands the zone in July.

Max Anderson, 2B | Toledo Mud Hens to Detroit Tigers

Anderson just went 13-for-27 over his last six games, a .481 average with two homers, a triple, two doubles, and seven RBI in a stretch that would make anyone's front office start dialing. Zoom out and the season line still holds up, .308/.352/.538 with a .875 OPS through 46 games at Triple-A, 9 homers and 31 RBI. June alone was a .327/.370/.594 month, and it seems like he could be carrying that succes into July.

He's always been a free swinger, and that hasn't changed. He's swinging at 56.1 percent of pitches this year, a rate that would rank fourth in the entire Majors if he were up there right now. Twenty-five strikeouts against just 12 walks backs that up. But the aggression is working, not fighting him. Detroit's No. 4 prospect has been especially dangerous against lefties, a .392 average and five homers in just 54 plate appearances against them. He's also coming off a strong Arizona Fall League showing, so this isn't new. It's a pattern.

Detroit's infield doesn't have an obvious opening right now, and that's the only thing standing between Anderson and Comerica Park. But a bat running this hot, with a track record behind it, doesn't sit in Toledo much longer. When the Tigers need a bat, he's already made the case.

Norfolk Is Bottom of the League, and the Numbers Actually Explain Why

Norfolk sits at 30-53, dead last in the International League and 20.5 games back in the East. A minus-108 run differential is also the worst mark in the league, and it's not particularly close. That's the headline. Here's the part that's more interesting than "they're bad."

The pitching has flashed real quality. Andrew Magno has been nearly unhittable out of the pen, a 0.56 ERA with 33 strikeouts in 32 innings. The lineup has two real bats too, Jose Barrero and Christian Encarnacion-Strand have combined for 32 homers with OPS marks north of .830 apiece.

The issue is everyone else. Norfolk leads the entire league in strikeouts, 874 of them in 83 games, and the team average sits at .232, second worst in the International League. Below the top of the order, production has completely dried up, multiple regulars are hitting well under .250 with OPS marks in the .400 to .600 range. That's a stretch of the roster producing almost nothing at the same time, and it's dragging a team with actual talent to the bottom of the standings. Norfolk isn't hopeless. It's just cold, everywhere at once.

Triple Dip is a Below the Show publication. Published every Thursday. Forward this to a friend who's tracking call-ups.

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